As Ravi Shastri would say: “We are in the business end of the tournament”. The points table looks really crowded with a few teams on 12 points and a few bunched together on 10 points. There are 17 games left as of today (4/7/2010) and most teams have 4 games left. The range of points that cannot be used to predict who will make it to the top-4 because who plays who also becomes critical.
So I wrote up a simple simulation which looks at a 1000 possible result scenarios to determine the probability of each team ending up in positions 1 through 8. The major assumptions in this simulation are
1. Each team has equal probability of winning a game. It might not be a great probability estimate for individual games but it is some starting point.
2. Net Run rate obviously has not been used to separate the teams on the same points. Thus, these probabilities reported below must be read as the probability that each team scores points that will put them in that position 1-8. Actual qualification may be more complicated with net run rates messing things up.
So here are the results:
|Royal Challengers Bangalore||0.125||0.282||0.171||0.171||0.122||0.091||0.037||0.001|
|Chennai Super Kings||0.034||0.182||0.164||0.199||0.176||0.182||0.062||0.001|
|Kolkata Knight Riders||0.057||0.167||0.160||0.208||0.184||0.182||0.042||0.000|
|Kings XI Punjab||0.000||0.000||0.000||0.002||0.021||0.048||0.266||0.663|